Newmont Corporation
For each quarter end in the past 2.0years, we re-ran Mr. Market's protocol using only the financial data that was on file at that moment, and compared the resulting intrinsic value to the price Mr. Market was actually quoting that day. The dark line is what the business was worth, by the protocol. The blue line is what Mr. Market wanted for it.
Subscribers see the full backtest on NEM.
We've replayed the protocol against 2 years of NEM's history. The chart, the quarter-by-quarter table, and the commentary all unlock with a subscription.
A note on what this is — and isn't.
A purist backtest of Mr. Market's protocol would replay the analyst-consensus G1 that was on file at each historical quarter. We do not have that data on the free tier of our fundamentals provider — analyst estimates are forward-looking only. So we substitute the trailing five-year EPS CAGR computed at each quarter as a proxy for “growth that was knowable then.” G2 is held constant at 2.5%. The sector exception (Banks/Insurance/REITs use OCF only) is applied identically across the window. Everything else — the discount rate, the maintenance-capex proxy, the projection mechanics, the 25% margin of safety — runs exactly as the live protocol runs today.
- Owner Earnings is smoothed across three trailing TTM windows (current, one year back, two years back) — a single bad quarter doesn't collapse the intrinsic value to zero.
- G1 substituted with trailing 5-year EPS CAGR — historical forward analyst consensus is not available at point-in-time on our current data tier.
- G2 held constant at 2.5% across the backtest window.
- Sector exception (Banks/Insurance/REITs use OCF only) applied identically across all quarters. Banks do not yet get the Gordon residual model in the backtest — that ships next.