Mr. Market is in a depressed mood today. He is offering these businesses below their intrinsic value. A business’s value does not change with the seasons, with sentiment, or with the morning’s headlines — yet Mr. Market’s prices do, every single day. The Tape below shows what he is asking for 30 businesses we follow, and what those businesses are actually worth by our reckoning.
The names where Mr. Market's mood diverges most from the businesses' underlying economics. The Fivetracks what would have happened if you'd bought the top five every year for the past five.
By the protocol, these businesses are worth materially more than today's asking price.
Walk away. These businesses are priced above what the protocol says they are worth, even before the margin of safety.
The dark line is what Coca-Cola was actually worth, by the protocol, at each historical quarter. The blue line is what Mr. Market was asking for it that day. The shaded regions show where his price was either above intrinsic value (manic, in red) or below (depressed, in blue). The dashed green line is the buy-below threshold — twenty-five percent below intrinsic value.
Caveat: this backtest substitutes a trailing 5-year EPS CAGR for the forward analyst-consensus G1 the live protocol uses, because historical analyst estimates are not on the free tier of our data provider. Otherwise the math is identical to the live page.
Each row is one business. The price is what Mr. Market is asking for it today. The intrinsic value is what we believe the business is actually worth, by the protocol described in The House Style. Δ% is the gap — positive means Mr. Market is offering it below value; negative means he is asking too much.
| Ticker | Business | Mood | Mr. Market is asking | 5y price | Intrinsic value | Buy below (25% MoS) | Δ% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKE | NIKE, Inc. | DEPRESSED | $46.23 | $337.66 | $253.24 | +630.4% | Read → | |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | DEPRESSED | $380.31 | $2,411.29 | $1,808.46 | +534.0% | Read → | |
| OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | DEPRESSED | $56.63 | $275.11 | $206.33 | +385.8% | Read → | |
| PEP | PepsiCo, Inc. | DEPRESSED | $144.19 | $501.45 | $376.08 | +247.8% | Read → | |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | DEPRESSED | $182.46 | $607.25 | $455.44 | +232.8% | Read → | |
| UNP | Union Pacific Corporation | DEPRESSED | $262.64 | $797.38 | $598.03 | +203.6% | Read → | |
| ADBE | Adobe Inc. | DEPRESSED | $259.21 | $756.19 | $567.14 | +191.7% | Read → | |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | DEPRESSED | $493.98 | $1,392.41 | $1,044.31 | +181.9% | Read → | |
| LOW | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | DEPRESSED | $214.34 | $563.63 | $422.72 | +163.0% | Read → | |
| CAT | Caterpillar Inc. | DEPRESSED | $875.87 | $2,246.69 | $1,685.02 | +156.5% | Read → | |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | DEPRESSED | $632.51 | $1,599.07 | $1,199.30 | +152.8% | Read → | |
| V | Visa Inc. | DEPRESSED | $326.36 | $815.22 | $611.42 | +149.8% | Read → | |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | DEPRESSED | $279.20 | $650.98 | $488.24 | +133.2% | Read → | |
| PG | The Procter & Gamble Company | DEPRESSED | $143.57 | $328.47 | $246.35 | +128.8% | Read → | |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | DEPRESSED | $217.58 | $452.36 | $339.27 | +107.9% | Read → | |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | DEPRESSED | $115.75 | $183.12 | $137.34 | +58.2% | Read → | |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | DEPRESSED | $450.24 | $699.05 | $524.29 | +55.3% | Read → | |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | DEPRESSED | $956.32 | $1,351.39 | $1,013.55 | +41.3% | Read → | |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | DEPRESSED | $225.33 | $318.10 | $238.58 | +41.2% | Read → | |
| RTX | RTX Corporation | SOBER | $179.66 | $224.49 | $168.36 | +25.0% | Read → | |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | SOBER | $380.34 | $443.32 | $332.49 | +16.6% | Read → | |
| KO | The Coca-Cola Company | BUOYANT | $79.01 | $85.03 | $63.77 | +7.6% | Read → | |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | BUOYANT | $225.81 | $241.17 | $180.88 | +6.8% | Read → | |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | MANIC | $312.06 | $245.07 | $183.80 | -21.5% | Read → | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | MANIC | $211.14 | $139.98 | $104.98 | -33.7% | Read → | |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | MANIC | $299.31 | $181.00 | $135.75 | -39.5% | Read → | |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | MANIC | $51.60 | $31.04 | $23.28 | -39.9% | Read → | |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | MANIC | $1,105.44 | $578.58 | $433.93 | -47.7% | Read → | |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | EUPHORIC | $516.10 | $158.60 | $118.95 | -69.3% | Read → | |
| NFLX | Netflix, Inc. | EUPHORIC | $86.02 | -$92.99 | -$69.75 | -208.1% | Read → |
Five years of point-in-time intrinsic value plotted against Mr. Market’s prices. The first true backtest.
Once the backtest runs cleanly on one stock, the universe expands to twenty — banks, technology, energy, rails.
Personal watchlists, daily mood readings on your stocks, an email arriving in your inbox at nine o’clock each morning.
The hundred largest American businesses, all of them re-priced against Mr. Market every weekday.
Five hundred names. The whole market. One protocol.
A short bylined essay every weekday morning — Mr. Market’s mood, three names worth your attention.